Carbon Markets Outlook

OUTLOOK: Long-term Australian carbon price, supply, and demand outlook (ACCUs and SMCs)

Our latest Carbon Market Outlook (CMO) for the Australian carbon market has now been published. This quarterly CMO presents our detailed modelling and expectations for Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) and Safeguard Mechanism Credit (SMC) prices over a 10-year horizon, along with underlying supply-demand fundamentals.

The below “Technical Report” presents our full Central Case modelling, including deep dives into industrial decarbonisation and low-emissions technology uptake, compliance demand, and our forecasts for ACCU supply. The “Summary Report” provides a short-form overview of key pricing and fundamental outcomes.

These reports are published under our Australian Carbon Intelligence service. Click below to access the report, or click here to take a tour of our EnergyIQ platform.

Restricted Access

This is a subscriber report. Please login to access this content.

Tour our EnergyIQ platform

RepuTex research insights and market data is published via our EnergyIQ platform.

Click below to learn more about our services.

Sign up for regular insights

LATEST UPDATES

  • Carbon Markets

    RECORDING: Policy scenarios for Australia’s Safeguard Mechanism under a Coalition government

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Australia’s Safeguard Mechanism policy framework faces an uncertain future should there be a change of […]

    Research Insights, Webinars | April 1st, 2025
  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: ACCU prices fall to 10-month low – likely to test new floor under a Coalition government

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    With the FY23/24 compliance period to close today, attention shifts to what lies ahead, with […]

    Research Insights | March 31st, 2025
  • Carbon Markets

    SCENARIO ANALYSIS: Australian carbon price, supply and demand outlook (2025 Federal Election and IFLM / Soil sensitivities)

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    This Scenario Analysis report accompanies our latest quarterly Carbon Market Outlook (CMO), modelling alternative price […]

    Market Outlooks, Research Insights | March 27th, 2025
  • Carbon Markets Outlook

    OUTLOOK: Long-term Australian carbon price, supply, and demand outlook (ACCUs and SMCs)

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Our latest Carbon Market Outlook (CMO) for the Australian carbon market has now been published. […]

    Market Outlooks, Research Insights | March 27th, 2025
  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: Coalition would “relax” Safeguard Mechanism settings as it turns on the gas

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    The emergence of discounted Safeguard Mechanism Credit (SMC) offers reignited activity in the traded market […]

    Research Insights | March 24th, 2025
  • Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone